Is the Renewable Fuel Mandate Reasonable?

Given the well-documented energy price increases in 2008 and our very uncertain energy future, the Renewable Fuel Mandate, passed by Congress as part of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 needs to be reconsidered. This legislation requires a gradual ramping up of ethanol production, from the current 10 billion gallons to a total of 31 billion gallons by 2022, in an effort to achieve greater energy independence. This number includes 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol and 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol.

The negative consequences of corn ethanol’s life cycle in terms of soil erosion, water quality, and energy balance have been well documented, so there has recently been greater attention given to cellulosic ethanol. The problem is that technology and land use plans are lagging behind on the cellulosic ethanol front. The Billion Ton Study, produced by the Department of Energy and the United States Department of Agriculture in 2005, estimates that there are 1.3 billion tons of biomass available annually for the production of cellulosic ethanol. While a careful reading of this report doesn’t give away any glaring flaws in the assessment, sustainably harvesting this biomass and converting it into ethanol with little or no environmental degradation and in a cost effective way is clearly a gargantuan task.

This task is made even more difficult by the fact that different regions of the country are better adapted for different sorts of feedstocks for cellulosic ethanol production. For example, the south has a plethora of forest products while the heartland has agricultural residues like corn stover and the potential for large-scale growth of perennial grasses.

There are many obstacles to the efficient production of 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol by 2022. The most prominent on the front end are the harvest, transportation, and storage of millions of tons of feedstocks. On the back end, the conversion processes are different than the already well-established corn ethanol facilities, so the infrastructure and technology development that must occur will be extremely expensive.

At the end of the day, this Congressional mandate promotes a good idea: produce renewable fuels to help the United States become more energy independent. If it is to be seen as a lofty goal to provide a sense of urgency, I applaud Congress’s chutzpa. However, if the requirement remains set in stone regardless of the land use changes, water quality degradation, increased erosion patterns, and habitat loss that could ensue, future generations might look back and wonder what we were thinking.